The Role of Incumbency Fatigue in the NPP’s Parliamentary Performance in the 2024 Elections

Abstract

In competitive democracies, incumbency fatigue has emerged as an important factor influencing electoral outcomes. This paper examines the role of incumbency fatigue in the dismal performance of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) in the 2024 elections. It analyzes the impact of prolonged party and parliamentary incumbency on electoral results through a review of historical parliamentary seat data and a qualitative desk-based analysis of election reports and media coverage. The results indicate that the NPP’s defeat was driven by several factors, including declining public trust and confidence, a strong desire for change and new leadership, protest voting arising from unmet expectations, perceptions of weak accountability, and voter exhaustion with long-serving incumbents. The opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) also used effective mobilization strategies. The paper further develops the Seat-Level Mechanism of Incumbency Fatigue to explain how incumbency fatigue manifests in electoral outcomes.